New Methods to Assess Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Agricultural Production Systems: The experience of AgMIP’s Regional Integrated Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia

Abstract

The climate change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment that is logically consistent across global, regional and local scales (Moss et al., 2008, 2010; Kriegler, 2012; van Vuuren et al., 2012). The most common challenge is that global models do not provide context-specific answers, while scientists and decision makers require data and information about climate change, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation and impacts at the local scale. The Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides the link between global climate change projections and sector-specific and regional pathways and scenarios (Antle et al., 2015; Rosenzweig et al., 2013). AgMIP, through a trans-disciplinary process involving both scientists and stakeholders, is developing Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) for agricultural systems at both global and regional scales. In addition to climate modeling, RAPs include bio-physical and socio-economic drivers, associated capabilities, challenges and opportunities (Valdivia et al., 2015). RAPs can then be translated as components of the AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessments (RIA) of climate vulnerability and impacts.