Bio-economic system model at the watershed level

Abstract

The bio-economic and climate change modeling work under this project aims at mimicking the current decision making process of farmers in a systems’ context by intermarrying both the socioeconomic and biophysical dynamics in the Gumera-Maksegnit watershed. Simulations are used to predict the likely outcomes at the system level in general, and different farm typologies in particular, under several combinations of social, economic, bio-physical, policy, institutional, market, technological and adaptation strategies under climate change scenarios. Due to the variability in topography, soils, rainfall, agronomic practices and livelihood circumstances at the watershed level, a bio-economic model that can describe the system is needed. Practices at the farm level are usually site specific. It is important that these are modeled to be able to generalize across the 6000 ha watershed and beyond. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to provide insight on the effects of various technological, policy, institutional, environmental, biophysical, adaptation strategies and marketing interventions under different climate change scenarios, different climate change adaptation strategies on farmers livelihoods and help decision makers by identifying the optimal courses of action for achieving the desired outcomes (including poverty reduction, food security and sustainability) at both the system and sub system levels and if possible at household levels with special emphasis to the differential effects of the different policy, institutional, technological and climate change on the different farm household typologies. This will be useful especially in the effort to identify the most vulnerable farm household typologies and develop mitigation and adaptation strategies that will reduce the risk of facing irreversible damages. This modelling research is still ongoing and is the subject of a PhD research that will continue until the end of 2017