Foresight Analysis for Grain Legumes and Dryland Cereals (GLDC)

Abstract

Results from the latest version of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) developed by IFPRI have been used to describe the future outlook for the CRP GLDC crops and regions in terms of the likely changes in their cropped production and consumption in the medium and long terms. At IMPACT’s core is a global, partial equilibrium, multi-market, agriculture sector model. Global, climate-sensitive hydrology and water use models are linked to IMPACT (Robinson et al. 2015). The DSSAT crop modelling suite (Hoogenboom et al. 2015) is also joined at the front end to directly estimate yields of crops under varying management and climate change scenarios from global climate models. Food supply is determined for 320 sub-national or national geographic units [Food Production Units (FPUs)] delineated according to intersections of administrative units (chiefly countries) with major river basins. Projection results can be either reported by FPU or by country. Irrigated and rainfed crop yields and area changes or livestock numbers and yields include exogenous sources, such as those from projected public and private sector investment trends as well as impacts from climate change and agricultural (vs urban) areas growth, and endogenous sources (mostly driven by elasticities), such as farmer responses to changing prices. The model simulates 62 agricultural commodities (crops, livestock, and several secondary agricultural products), including explicit modelling of nearly all CGIAR mandate crops. Water availability is modelled at the grid level and aggregated to the FPU level, with water demand determined through crop/livestock life cycles, cropping patterns, and competition with non-agricultural sectors at FPU levels. Agricultural land use and land use change are modelled at the FPU level based on historical trends and expert opinion on responses to agricultural prices. Commodity markets are cleared annually out to 2050 while the agronomic and water models operate at a monthly time step incorporating standardized crop calendars. Food demands are simulated for 159 countries and regions based on changes in income, population, and prices (Robinson et al. 2015). Results are presented here for a baseline scenario that assumes “middle-of-the-road” growth in population and income (according to the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2) and with no climate change.