Ethiopia Livestock and Fisheries Sector Development Project

Abstract

A. Country Context 1.Ethiopia is a large, landlocked, and diverse country. Located in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia extends over an area of 1.1 million square kilometers, about the size of France and Spain combined. Its biophysical environment includes a variety of contrasting ecosystems, with significant differences in climate, soil properties,vegetation types, agricultural potential, biodiversity and water resources and with a challenging topography vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Ethiopia is a country of many nationalities and peoples1, with current total population estimated at 104 million (2017). 2.Ethiopia has experienced strong economic growth over the past decade and is amongst the fastest growing countries in the world. Although still one of the poorest countries in the world, Ethiopia’s per capita income has increased from US$350 per capita in 2010 to US$993 in 2017.2 Economic growth averaged 10.7 percent per year between 2003/04 and 2011/12 compared to the regional average of 5.4 percent and had a continued high level throughout FY 2013/14 and 2014/15 with some decline to an estimated 7.6 percent in FY 2015/16. 3due to the severe drought and global economic factors. The IMF expects Ethiopia to recover some ground in 2017 and the current projected real GDP growth for 2017 is 8.5 percent.4The IMF projects an 8.5‐7.8 percent real GDP growth in the medium term (2018‐2020). If the trend continues, it is possible for Ethiopia to reach middleincome status by 2025. The rapid growth is based on a mix of factors, including agricultural modernization, the development of new export sectors, strong global commodity demand, and governmentled development investments. Private consumption and public investment have driven demand side growth, with the latter assuming an increasingly important role in recent years. 3.There have been positive impacts from structural change for the period 2005 to 2013 especially on poverty reduction. Extreme poverty has fallen from 55 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2011 and 24 percent in 2016, which is one of the most impressive poverty reduction results recorded internationally. Yet, vulnerability to return to poverty remains high and inequality rose slightly during the most recent five years, with the Gini coefficient5 moving from 0.284 to 0.328. Economic growth and substantial improvements in the provision of safety nets and basic services have been important drivers of poverty reduction in the last decade, with each percent of growth reducing poverty by 0.55 percent. While there is a modest shift in labor from agric lture to services and construction, the structural change was not sufficiently inclusive. 4.Political unrest in 2016 has largely settled but pockets of uncertainty remain.6 The state of emergency was lifted in August 2017. However, strikes and signs of unrest erupted in some parts of the country linked to an increase in the tax liabilities of medium and small size businesses and ethnic tensions on the borders between Somali and Oromia regions; but the federal government has moved to reduce the tensions.