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dc.contributorAw-Hassan, Aden A.en_US
dc.creatorBobojonov, Ihtiyoren_US
dc.date2014-04-13en_US
dc.date.accessioned2017-07-24T01:39:26Z
dc.date.available2017-07-24T01:39:26Z
dc.identifierhttp://ac.els-cdn.com/S0167880914001170/1-s2.0-S0167880914001170-main.pdf?_tid=5d6303ec-6d94-11e7-8a28-00000aacb361&acdnat=1500587145_e70f72ad1900aa23f17f1c2fc0d79f30en_US
dc.identifierhttps://mel.cgiar.org/reporting/download/hash/K9qtr7mren_US
dc.identifier.citationIhtiyor Bobojonov, Aden A. Aw-Hassan. (13/4/2014). Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 188, pp. 245-255.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11766/7335
dc.description.abstractIncreased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of Central Asia are heterogenous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational levels. The bio-economic farm model (BEFM) is used for ex ante assessment of climate change impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The BEFM is calibrated to 10 farming systems in Central Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in the simulations. Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.en_US
dc.formatPDFen_US
dc.languageenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Massonen_US
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC-4.0en_US
dc.sourceAgriculture, Ecosystems & Environment;188,(2014) Pagination 245,255en_US
dc.subjectbio-economic modelingen_US
dc.subjectclimate risken_US
dc.titleImpacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approachen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
cg.creator.idAw-Hassan, Aden A.: 0000-0002-9236-4949en_US
cg.creator.ID-typeORCIDen_US
cg.subject.agrovocdroughten_US
cg.subject.agrovocuncertaintyen_US
cg.subject.agrovoccrop modellingen_US
cg.contributor.centerLeibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies - IAMOen_US
cg.contributor.centerInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas - ICARDAen_US
cg.contributor.crpCGIAR Research Program on Dryland Systems - DSen_US
cg.contributor.funderInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas - ICARDAen_US
cg.contributor.projectCommunication and Documentation Information Services (CODIS)en_US
cg.contributor.project-lead-instituteInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas - ICARDAen_US
cg.coverage.regionCentral Asiaen_US
cg.coverage.countryKZen_US
cg.coverage.countryKGen_US
cg.coverage.countryTJen_US
cg.coverage.countryTMen_US
cg.coverage.countryUZen_US
cg.contactBobojonov@iamo.deen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2014.02.033en_US
dc.identifier.statusOpen accessen_US
mel.impact-factor4.099en_US


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