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dc.contributorAsseng, Sentholden_US
dc.contributorT. Kassie, Belayen_US
dc.contributorXiong, Weien_US
dc.contributorRobertson, Rickyen_US
dc.contributorPequeno, Diegoen_US
dc.contributorSonder, Kaien_US
dc.contributorReynolds, Matthewen_US
dc.contributorAli Babar, Mden_US
dc.contributorMolero Milan, Anabelen_US
dc.contributorHoogenboom, Gerriten_US
dc.creatorM. Hernandez-Ochoa, Ixchelen_US
dc.date2018-09-17en_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-08T16:21:40Z
dc.date.available2019-04-08T16:21:40Z
dc.identifierhttps://mel.cgiar.org/dspace/limiteden_US
dc.identifier.citationIxchel M. Hernandez-Ochoa, Senthold Asseng, Belay T. Kassie, Wei Xiong, Ricky Robertson, Diego Pequeno, Kai Sonder, Matthew Reynolds, Md Ali Babar, Anabel Molero Milan, Gerrit Hoogenboom. (17/9/2018). Climate change impact on Mexico wheat production. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 263, pp. 373-387.en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11766/9762
dc.description.abstractWheat is one of the most important cereal crops in Mexico, but the impact of future climate change on production is not known. To quantify the impact of future climate change together with its uncertainty, two wheat crop models were executed in parallel, using two scaling methods, five Global Climate Models (GCMs) and two main Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the 2050s. Simulated outputs varied among crop models, scaling methods, GCMs, and RCPs; however, they all projected a general decline in wheat yields by the 2050s. Despite the growth-stimulating effect of elevated CO2 concentrations, consistent yield declines were simulated across most of the main wheat growing regions of Mexico due to the projected increase in temperature. Exceptions occurred in some cooler areas, where temperature improved sub-optimal conditions, and in a few areas where rainfall increased, but these increases only provided negligible contributions to national production. Larger and more variable yield declines were projected for rainfed wheat due to current and projected spatial variability of temperature and rainfall patterns. Rainfed wheat, however, only contributes about 6% of Mexico’s wheat production. When aggregating the simulated climate change impacts, considering temperature increase, rainfall change, and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations for irrigated and rainfed wheat cropping systems, national wheat production for Mexico is projected to decline between 6.9% for RCP 4.5 and 7.9% for RCP 8.5. Model uncertainty (combined for crop and climate models) in simulated yield changes, and across two scaling methods, was smaller than temporal and spatial variability in both RCPs. Spatial variability tends to be the largest in both future scenarios. To maintain or increase future wheat production in Mexico, adaptation strategies, particularly to increasing temperatures affecting irrigated wheat, or expanding the cropping area, will be necessary.en_US
dc.languageenen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Massonen_US
dc.rightsCC-BY-NC-4.0en_US
dc.sourceAgricultural and Forest Meteorology;263,(2018) Pagination 373,387en_US
dc.subjectuncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectmodel ensambleen_US
dc.subjectcrop simulation modelen_US
dc.titleClimate change impact on Mexico wheat productionen_US
dc.typeJournal Articleen_US
cg.creator.idSonder, Kai: 0000-0001-9672-5361en_US
cg.creator.ID-typeORCIDen_US
cg.subject.agrovoctriticumen_US
cg.contributor.centerFrench National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (French National Institute for Agricultural Research) - INRAE (INRA)en_US
cg.contributor.centerUniversity of Florida - UFen_US
cg.contributor.centerDuPont Pioneeren_US
cg.contributor.centerInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center - CIMMYTen_US
cg.contributor.centerInternational Food Policy Research Institute - IFPRIen_US
cg.contributor.crpCRP on Wheat - WHEATen_US
cg.contributor.funderInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center - CIMMYTen_US
cg.contributor.projectCRP WHEAT Phase IIen_US
cg.contributor.project-lead-instituteInternational Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas - ICARDAen_US
cg.date.embargo-end-dateTimelessen_US
cg.coverage.regionCentral Americaen_US
cg.coverage.countryMXen_US
cg.contactsasseng@ufl.eduen_US
cg.identifier.doihttps://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.09.008en_US
dc.identifier.statusTimeless limited accessen_US
mel.impact-factor4.039en_US


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