Bolivia–European Union Trade Agreement: Is It an Option for the Morales Administration?

Abstract

In 2008 Bolivia ceased to benefit from US trade preferences, which resulted in thousands of jobs lost thoroughout the country. Without the political will to initiate a trade agreement with the United States, the Morales administration has the opportunity to initiate a trade agreement with the European Union. This study evaluates macro-and microeconomic impacts emerging from a hypothetical trade agreement between Bolivia and the European Union. Our methodology consisted of using a computable general equilibrium model as price generator, and a micro-simulation approach as a bridge to transmit those price changes to the household level under two liberalization scenarios. We conclude that Bolivia could benefit if a trade agreement with the European Union (the second largest importer of goods in the world) is accomplished.