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Transforming soil quality index predictions in the Nile River Basin using hybrid stacking machine learning techniques
Date: 2025-05-31
Type: Journal Article
Status: Timeless limited access
This study highlights the importance of sustainable land management in preserving soil health and agricultural productivity, particularly in mitigating land degradation. Soil Quality Index (SQI) was assessed in Egypt’s Nile River Basin using 266 surface samples (0–30 cm depth) collected between 2021 and 2022. Eleven key soil quality indicators such as bulk density (BD), sand, silt, clay, pH, electrical conductivity (EC), organic carbon (OC), calcium (Ca), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) were analyzed to estimate the observed SQI (SQIobs) using a PCA-based scoring method and geostatistical techniques. The SQIobs were validated against in-situ wheat yield. Various hybrid stacking ensemble (SE) machine learning models including Random Forest (SE-RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (SE-XGB), Gradient Boosting Machine (SE-GBM), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (SE-MARS), Support Vector Machine (SE-SVM), and SE-Cubist was applied to predict soil quality (SQIpred) in data-scarce regions. The SE-RF and SE-Cubist models demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.830 and 0.824, respectively). Results showed that “very high” and “very low” SQI classes covered 24.25 % and 14.70 % of the study area, respectively. Future projections using CMIP6 models indicate a decline in SQI, from 24.25 % to 19.15 % (SSP2-4.5) and 10.85 % (SSP5-8.5) between 1990 and 2030. SHAP analysis identified BD, clay, sand, OC, and N as key drivers of SQIobs, while SM, Tmax, FC, ST, and NDVI significantly influenced SQIpred. This study provides a robust framework for assessing soil quality, offering valuable insights for land use planning, sustainable agriculture, and combating soil degradation.
Ўзбекистондаги қум ва чанг бўронлари: таъсирини англаш ва унинг оқибатларини юмшатиш учун атмосферани моделлаштириш
Author(s): Akramkhanov, Akmal; Haddad, Mira; Patlakas, Platon; Umarov, Sherzod; Nurbekov, Aziz; Yazici, Ekrem (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 2024-11-30)
Date: 2024-11-30
Type: Internal Report
Status: Open access
Ушбу ҳисобот Ўзбекистонда қум ва чанг бўронлари (ҚЧБ) келтириб чиқарадиган
муаммоларни ўрганади ва атмосферани моделлаштириш ёндашувидан фойда ланган ҳолда уларни юмшатиш стратегияларини кўриб чиқади
Sand and Dust Storms in Uzbekistan: Atmospheric Modeling for Understanding Impacts and Mitigation
Author(s): Akramkhanov, Akmal; Haddad, Mira; Patlakas, Platon; Umarov, Sherzod; Nurbekov, Aziz; Yazici, Ekrem (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 2024-11-30)
Date: 2024-11-30
Type: Internal Report
Status: Open access
This report investigates the challenges posed by sand and dust storms (SDS) in Uzbekistan and explores mitigation strategies using an atmospheric modeling approach.
Student helps win the fight against the Red Palm Weevil
Author(s): (ICARDA), International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (The International Center for Agriculture Research in the Dry Areas, 2013-05-29)
Date: 2013-05-29
Type: Blog
Status: Open access
The Red Palm Weevil is the most important pest that attacks date palms.Fungi, which formpart of an integrated pest management program, are the best crop protection tools to control them.
Political Economy of the Wheat Sector in Egypt: Seed Systems, Varietal Adoption, and Impacts
Author(s): Bishaw, Zewdie; Yigezu, Yigezu; Azab Moustafa, Moustafa (International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 2025-06-18)
Date: 2025-06-18
Type: Book
Status: Open access
Wheat has been an important food staple in Egypt from time immemorial and remains one of the most (if not the single most) important food security crops in the country. Currently, wheat provides one-third (35 percent) of the typical Egyptian’s total daily calorie intake. On average, the crop represents about 10 percent of the total value of agricultural production and about 20 percent of all agricultural imports, which depicts the country’s insurmountable food security challenge.
Over the last six decades, the wheat sector in Egypt has exhibited an increasing trend from 0.58 million ha with a productivity of 2.5 tons ha-1 and production of 1.44 million tons in 1961 to a high of 1.39 million ha, a productivity of 6.9 tons ha-1, and total production of 9.84 million tons in 2021. Despite these significant achievements, Egypt remains number one globally in terms of the volume and value of its wheat imports. The main drivers of the country’s increasing wheat dependency are rapid population growth, increased per-capita consumption, and other alternative uses of wheat. Cognizant of these facts, over the years, debate on Egyptian agrifood systems revolved around ‘wheat self-sufficiency’.
Anchored on three major pillars, several strategies have been developed for reducing dependency on imports of wheat: (i) expansion of area under wheat production; (ii) increased productivity per unit area through the generation and dissemination of new wheat varieties and associated technologies and innovations; and iii) reduction of demand for wheat by encouraging dietary diversification and replacing wheat with alternative grains in bread production. The Sustainable Agricultural Development Strategy Towards 2030 aspired to attain a wheat self-sufficiency level of 80.8 percent (i.e., wheat production of 15.1 million tons) by increasing wheat area to 1.76 million ha and productivity to 8.57 tons ha-1. Wheat self-sufficiency is expected to continue being the driving force shaping the future of wheat in Egypt. Against the backdrop of limited natural resources and climate change, it is imperative for the country to also explore alternative options to achieving self-sufficiency in wheat.