Prospective Stratégique : Elaboration de Scénarios sur la Transition Agroécologique (TAE) en Tunisie / Rappel de Quelques Eléments d’Orientations Méthodologiques
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Mongi Sghaier, Aymen Frija, Mohamed Aziz Darghouth. (16/10/2024). Prospective Stratégique: Elaboration de Scénarios sur la Transition Agroécologique (TAE) en Tunisie / Rappel de Quelques Eléments d’Orientations Méthodologiques. Beirut, Lebanon: International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA).
Abstract
This methodological brief delineates the strategic foresight process through eight key steps: i) identification of the central question for exploring future scenarios; ii) identification of key influencing factors related to the question; iii) identification of key external driving forces; iv) ranking these forces according to importance and unpredictability; v) development of a scenario logic with two main axes of critical forces; vi) Concretizing the scenarios narratives in a more explicit way; vii) explore the implications of these scenarios on food systems outcomes ; and finally viii) selection of advanced indicators to monitor and refine the scenarios over time. The document briefly defines and presents each of these methodological steps.
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Frija, Aymen https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8379-9054