Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?
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Joseph O. Ogutu, Hans-Peter Piepho, Mohammed Said, Gordon Otieno Ojwang, Lucy Njino, Shem Kifugo, Patrick Wargute. (27/9/2016). Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes. PLOS ONE, 11(9), pp. 1-46.
Abstract
There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses
have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and
Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase
in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic
aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of
Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68%
between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most
extreme (72±88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of
warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's
zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred
in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased
(25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently
increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater
than that of wildlife in 2011±2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977±1980. Most of Kenya's
wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total ªnationalº
wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially
only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely
reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about
the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices
in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population
growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures
but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly,
we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional
and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community
and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.
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Author(s) ORCID(s)
Ogutu, Joseph O. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7379-0387
Said, Mohammed https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8127-6399
Said, Mohammed https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8127-6399