Spatial analysis for investment targeting: pilot tool

Abstract

In order to better measure resilience, and to better understand and target investment that will enhance resilience, the Technical Consortium is developing a pilot spatial tool. The purpose of this resilience modeling tool is to assist IGAD member states in the Horn of Africa in identifying areas of high and low resilience to known hazards, initially focusing on resilience to drought specifically. This identification of relative levels of resilience geographically will provide an opportunity for better targeting of investment projects proposed in the drylands investment plans for the respective countries. For the purposes of this model, resilience is understood as the ability of a population to recover from a shock. This ability is based on a calculation of the initial vulnerability at the time of the shock combined with the time it takes to recover from the impact of a hazard. This gives us a representation of overall resilience with low values indicating low resilience. The tool overlays multiple data layers indicating linkages and dynamic interactions between key indicators in systems affecting resilience. The result is a mapped output depicting a region’s relative resilience, derived from weighted indicators from three key systems: economic, social and ecological. The pilot development of the spatial tool will be trialed with various drought and environmental planning agencies in the IGAD member states to understand its utility in better enabling the targeting of investments and projects for the most impact in building resilience. Ultimately, it will allow governments in the Horn to host a sector-specific investment platform for improved planning and resource allocation.