Assessing climate and land use changes in Morocco (2001-2023): from a geospatial and farmers' perspective

Abstract

This study examines climate variability and land use dynamics in Morocco from 2001 to 2023 by integrating satellite-derived indicators with farmers’ reported climate risk perceptions. Using MODIS and ERA5-Land datasets within the Google Earth Engine platform, we analyzed trends in cropland extent, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), land surface temperature (LST), air temperature, and precipitation. Findings reveal cropland areas increased from 10% in 2001 to 13.5% in 2010, but declined to 10% by 2023, coinciding with a significant expansion of barren land. Slope analysis revealed moderate to extreme warming trends (LST slope up to + 0.0714 °C/year; air temperature slope > + 0.05 °C/year) and reductions in precipitation (down to − 59.34 mm/year), with over 60% of agricultural zones showing NDVI and NDWI decline and rainfall variability exceeding 100% in the coefficient of variation (CV). It contrasts with the georeferenced household survey of 3,350 farmers, where the farmers’ opinion highlights droughts and heatwaves as the predominant climate risks. Moreover, the survey reported adaptation strategies, which include the adoption of drought-resistant varieties, improved irrigation practices, and altered sowing dates. Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN) revealed spatial correspondence between perceived risks and environmental trends. These findings underscore the need for targeted, climate-smart interventions and ecosystem-based practices to strengthen agricultural resilience in Morocco’s most vulnerable regions.