Integrating APSIM model with machine learning to predict wheat yield spatial distribution

Kheir, Ahmed M.S.

Integrating APSIM model with machine learning to predict wheat yield spatial distribution

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Date

2023-09-12

Date Issued

2023-12-01

Contributes to SDGs

ISI Journal

Impact factor: 2.1 (Year: 2023)

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Citation

Ahmed M. S. Kheir, Siyabusa Mkuhlani, Jane W. Mugo, Abdelrazek Elnashar, Vinay Nangia. (1/12/2023). Integrating APSIM model with machine learning to predict wheat yield spatial distribution. Agronomy Journal, 115 (6), pp. 3188-3196.

Abstract

Traditional simulation models are often point based; thus, more research is needed to emphasize spatial simulation, providing decision-makers with fast recommendations. Combining machine learning algorithms with spatial process-based models could be considered an appropriate solution. We created a spatial model in R (APSIMx_R) to generate fine-resolution data from coarse-resolution data, which is typically available at the regional level. The APSIM crop model outputs were then deployed to train and test the artificial neural network, creating a hybrid modeling approach for robust spatial simulations. The APSIMx_R package facilitates preparing the required model inputs, executes the prediction, processes, and analyzes the APSIM crop model outputs. This note demonstrates the use of a new approach for creating reproducible crop modeling workflows with the spatial APSIM next-generation model and machine learning algorithms. The tool was deployed for spatial and temporal simulation of potential wheat yield under different nitrogen rates and various wheat cultivars. The spatial APSIMx_R was validated by comparing the simulated yield at 100 kg N ha−1 to the analogues' actual yield at the same grid points, which showed good agreement (d = 0.89) between the spatially predicted and actual yield. The hybrid approach increased such precision, resulting in higher agreement (d = 0.95) with actual yield. When the interaction between cultivars and nitrogen levels was considered, it was found that the novel cultivar Sakha95 is nitrogen voracious, exhibiting a larger drop in yield (65%) under minimal nitrogen treatment (0 kg N ha−1) relative to the potential yield.