Ecological and Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Groundwater within an Agricultural Ecosystem Using GIS and Multivariate Statistical Analysis (MSA): A Case Study of the Mnasra Region, Gharb Plain, Morocco

Abstract

Assessing groundwater quality is essential for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystems. This study evaluates groundwater contamination by heavy metals (HMs) using GIS approaches, multivariate statistical analysis (MSA), pollution indices (heavy metal pollution index (HPI), metal index (MI), degree of contamination (Cd), ecological risk index (ERI), and pollution index (PI)), and human health risk assessment (HHRA). The results revealed significant variations in heavy metal concentrations across the study area, with the highest concentrations found in the southern and southeastern parts, characterized by intense agricultural activities and uncontrolled landfills. Statistical analyses indicated both natural and anthropogenic sources of contamination. Pollution indices showed medium to high water pollution levels, with HPI values ranging from 20.23 to 128.60, MI values from 3.34 to 12.17, and Cd values from 2.90 to 11.73, indicating varying degrees of contamination. ERI values suggested a low ecological risk across all samples. However, health risk assessments highlighted significant non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks, particularly for children, with TCR values for some heavy metals like Ni and Cr exceeding safe limits, indicating potential health hazards. The findings provide a valuable framework for policymakers to develop targeted strategies for mitigating groundwater contamination and ensuring sustainable water quality management.