Climate and soil moisture variability and cropland exposure in Western Yemen: a spatiotemporal analysis using satellite and reanalysis time series from 2000 to 2024

Abstract

Climate and soil moisture variability can cause a significant impact on agriculture and vegetation ecosystems. In dryland regions, crops are primarily produced in a rainfed system, making them particularly vulnerable to climate and soil moisture stress. Understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate variability and its impact on soil moisture and cropland is crucial for enhancing agricultural resilience in vulnerable dryland regions. This study presents a detailed analysis of climate and soil moisture anomalies, as well as their associated cropland exposure, in western Yemen from 2000 to 2024, utilising monthly standardised indices and satellite-derived vegetation data. The findings revealed a significant transition toward warmer and drier conditions over the study period. Seasonal trend analysis indicated that precipitation and soil moisture have declined significantly in summer, autumn, and winter. Notably, temperatures have increased consistently across all seasons over the study period, with a cumulative rise of ~ 1.5 °C, and record highs were observed in 2023 and 2024. Cropland vegetation showed the strongest response to soil moisture variability during the summer periods, with a lag time of approximately 2.8 months. In contrast, winter correlations were slightly lower, with the longest lag observed for precipitation at 3.5 months, highlighting seasonal differences in crop vegetation sensitivity to hydroclimatic drivers. These findings underline the urgent need for climate-resilient agricultural strategies and sustainable water management to safeguard food security under the intensifying climate crisis in arid and semi-arid environments.