Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach
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Ihtiyor Bobojonov, Aden A. Aw-Hassan. (13/4/2014). Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modeling approach. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 188, pp. 245-255.
Abstract
Increased risk due to global warming has already become embedded in agricultural decision making in
Central Asia and uncertainties are projected to increase even further. Agro-ecology and economies of
Central Asia are heterogenous and very little is known about the impact of climate change at the subnational
levels. The bio-economic farm model (BEFM) is used for ex ante assessment of climate change
impacts at sub-national levels in Central Asia. The BEFM is calibrated to 10 farming systems in Central
Asia based on the household survey and crop growth experiment data. The production uncertainties and
the adaptation options of agricultural producers to changing environments are considered paramount in
the simulations.
Very large differences in climate change impacts across the studied farming systems are found. The
positive income gains in large-scale commercial farms in the northern regions of Kazakhstan and negative
impact in small-scale farms in arid zones of Tajikistan are likely to happen. Producers in Kyrgyzstan
may expect higher revenues but also higher income volatilities in the future. Agricultural producers in
Uzbekistan may benefit in the near future but may lose their income in the distant future. The negative
impacts could be further aggravated in arid zones of Central Asia if irrigation water availability decline
due to climate change and water demand increase in upstream regions. The scenario simulations show
that market liberalization and improved commodity exchange between the countries have very good
potential to cope with the negative consequences of climate change.
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Aw-Hassan, Aden A. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9236-4949